Game 3 of the NBA Finals will air on Wednesday, June 7 at 8:30 p.m. EST (The Miami Heat, the Eastern Conference champions, are playing against the Denver Nuggets, the Western Conference champions, in a best-of-seven elimination tournament. Currently, the Nuggets and the Heat are tied 1-1 in the finals after the Nuggets took Game 1 while the Heat won Game 2.
A furious fourth-quarter comeback propelled the Heat to a Game 2 win in Denver Sunday night that tied the NBA Finals at one game apiece with the series shifting to Miami.
The Nuggets are once again favored in Game 3 but the biggest storyline is the pending return of Heat guard Tyler Herro (hand), who hasn’t played since April 16. Herro, a career 38.3% three-point shooter, is set to rejoin a lineup that’s shooting a blistering 39.2% of its attempts from beyond the arc in the postseason.
That hot outside shooting played a key role in deciding Sunday’s game, which Miami won 111-108. Gabe Vincent’s 23 points led the team and Jimmy Butler and Bam Adebayo each added 21 points. Nikola Jokić finished with 41 points, his third 40-point performance of the playoffs, but none of his teammates even topped 20 points.
Murray’s 18-point output in Game 2 tied his second-lowest total of the playoffs. He drained a pair of threes late but still finished well short of his postseason average of 27 points per game. Murray tallied 26 in Game 1 to go along with Jokić’s 27, which was enough for a Nuggets win. But with Michael Porter Jr.’s shooting struggles (3-17 from three in the Finals), the two-time MVP needs more out of his running mate. That will likely require more shot attempts from Murray in Miami considering he took just 15 in Game 2. He’s hit the over on his points prop seven times in his last 10 games.
Jokić’s playoff rebounding average peaked at 14.5 in the Lakers series. He corralled 21 boards in Game 1 in the West Finals, which is as many as he has through two games against the Heat. Miami is not regarded as one of the better rebounding teams in the playoffs or the league at large, but Jokić’s numbers are still down a tick this series. The postseason’s top rebounder is available at plus odds (+104) to secure at least 13 boards in Game 3, a feat he’s accomplished nine times across 17 postseason games.
Butler has played well through two games but that has not necessarily meant big scoring outings the way it did in previous rounds. He’s taken fewer than 20 shots in both Finals games and is shooting under 40% from the field. That’s resulted in scoring totals of 13 and 21 points, well below his playoff average of 27.3 points per game. Game 2 was the fifth time in a row the under hit on his points prop. Butler’s line for Game 3 is down to 25.5, and with Herro back in the lineup and the All-Star assuming more of a facilitator role, he could be in for a sixth straight under.
Miami has been installed as an underdog often throughout its playoff run. The Heat have already gotten points four times on their home floor and Game 3 will be their fifth time in that position — they’re undefeated against the spread and 3–1 straight up so far. The last time it happened was Game 6 against Boston when Miami, a 2.5-point underdog.
