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Auburn vs. Michigan Sweet 16 Betting Preview
No. 1 Auburn (30-5) has been a dominant force all season, securing the NCAA Tournament’s top overall seed despite stumbling into March Madness with three losses in its final four games. Now, the Tigers face No. 5 Michigan (27-9) in Friday’s Sweet 16 showdown in Atlanta, looking to punch their ticket to the Elite Eight while setting a program record with their 31st win.
Key Matchups & Betting Angles
Auburn cruised through its first two tournament games, knocking off Alabama State and Creighton, but the competition ramps up against a red-hot Michigan squad. The Wolverines, fresh off a Big Ten title and an impressive rebuild under head coach Dusty May, bring a tough frontcourt duo in 7’1” Vladislav Goldin and 7’0” Danny Wolf—two players who could pose serious matchup problems for Auburn’s All-American big man, Johni Broome (18.4 PPG, 10.7 RPG).
Broome has been the engine of Auburn’s offense all year, but his ability to operate inside could be challenged by Michigan’s length. The Wolverines rank among the top teams in the country in defensive rebounding and shot-blocking, making this an interesting battle on the boards.
Michigan’s backcourt has also been rejuvenated by transfers, including ex-Auburn guard Tre Donaldson and Ohio State’s Roddy Gayle. Donaldson, in particular, will have a chip on his shoulder facing his former team, adding another storyline to this Sweet 16 clash.
Betting Trends to Watch:
- Auburn is 7-3 ATS (against the spread) in its last 10 games as a favorite of 5+ points.
- Michigan is 6-1 ATS in its last seven as an underdog, showing its ability to overperform expectations.
- The Over has hit in 8 of Auburn’s last 11 games, fueled by their up-tempo style (top 20 in adjusted tempo per KenPom).
X-Factors & Best Bets
Freshman guard Tahaad Pettiford has been Auburn’s surprise breakout star in March, averaging 19.5 PPG in the tournament, far above his 11.5 PPG season average. If he continues his hot streak, Auburn’s offense becomes even harder to contain.
For Michigan, Goldin and Wolf have been a dominant duo, combining for 37 points and 20 rebounds in their first two tournament wins. Wolf, who played for Yale last year, even has history against Auburn—he put up 13 points and 5 rebounds in Yale’s upset win over the Tigers in last year’s first round.
If you’re betting this game, keep an eye on Broome’s points + rebounds prop—if it’s in the mid-20s, it could be a strong play. Also, with Michigan’s ability to keep games close, grabbing them plus the points may offer value, especially if the spread creeps over +6.
This one should be a battle of tempo—Auburn wants to run, while Michigan’s size could slow the game down. Whoever dictates the pace will have a major edge in advancing to the Elite Eight.
Best Bet: Michigan +6 (if available) & Over 148.5 (if the number is reasonable)
