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Betting Preview: No. 1 Auburn vs. No. 2 Michigan State – South Region Final
Two veteran-heavy squads, No. 1 Auburn and No. 2 Michigan State, are set to battle for a ticket to San Antonio in Sunday’s NCAA Tournament South Region Final. While experience is key at this stage, it’s been a pair of red-hot freshmen—Auburn’s Tahaad Pettiford and Michigan State’s Jase Richardson who have stolen the spotlight and could be the X-factors in this matchup.
Auburn (31-5) rallied from a nine-point deficit in the final 12 minutes to take down Michigan on Friday, thanks to Pettiford’s clutch 15-point explosion down the stretch. The Tigers also got big-time performances from Johni Broome (22 pts, 16 reb) and Denver Jones (20 pts) to seal the deal. Now, Bruce Pearl’s squad—on the verge of the winningest season in program history looks to take the next step toward a second Final Four appearance.
On the other side, Michigan State (30-6) pulled off a similar script, flipping the game with a 14-2 second-half run to surge past Ole Miss. Richardson (20 pts) and Coen Carr (15 pts) led the charge, and now the Spartans turn their focus to slowing down Auburn’s three-headed monster. Head coach Tom Izzo, a Hall of Famer with a championship pedigree, is no stranger to March magic—but does he have enough to get past a deep and explosive Auburn squad?
Key Betting Angles & Matchup Insights
Momentum Matters: Both teams are riding high off strong second halves, but Auburn’s ability to close games with offensive firepower gives them an edge. Pettiford is averaging 19.7 PPG in the tournament, and Broome has been dominant on the boards, averaging 14.7 PPG & 13 RPG.
Battle in the Paint: Auburn’s size and rebounding ability—led by Broome—could be the deciding factor. Izzo hinted at inserting big men Szymon Zapala and Xavier Booker into the rotation to counter the Tigers inside.
Guard Play Wins in March: Michigan State’s backcourt athleticism is elite, but Auburn’s guards can match them step for step. The Spartans will need to limit Pettiford and Jones’ shot-making ability to have a chance.
The Jase Richardson Factor: The son of MSU legend Jason Richardson, Jase is carving his own path and has the confidence to deliver on the big stage. While he doesn’t have his father’s highlight-reel hops, his poise and scoring ability could be a difference-maker.
Betting Outlook:
Spread: Auburn -4.5
Total: 147.5
Pick to Watch: Auburn -3.5 (-130) – The Tigers’ ability to close games and control the paint gives them the edge, but expect a battle.
Both teams are battle-tested, but Auburn has been the more consistent and balanced squad all season. If their defense can contain Richardson and force the Spartans into tough shots, Pearl’s squad should punch their ticket to the Final Four.
