Super Bowl LIX Betting Breakdown: Can the Chiefs Make History Again?
The Kansas City Chiefs are back in the big game, and at this point, it’s just business as usual. Patrick Mahomes and Andy Reid have built a dynasty, and now they’re knocking on the door of the first-ever three-peat in Super Bowl history. But standing in their way? A Philadelphia Eagles team looking for revenge after falling short two years ago.
The Chiefs have been nothing short of dominant since the start of the 2022 season, going 49-11 overall—including a perfect 9-0 in the playoffs. Betting against Mahomes and Reid in the postseason is a dangerous game, considering their 17-3 playoff record together, four Super Bowl appearances, and three rings.
But here’s the question: Is there value in fading Kansas City this time?
The Case for the Eagles
Philly has retooled since their last Super Bowl loss, adding Saquon Barkley to an already dangerous offense. Barkley’s impact has been undeniable—he’s racked up 2,447 yards this season, including a monster 442 in the playoffs. The Eagles’ run-heavy attack (621 rushing plays to just 448 pass attempts this season) leans into their strength: a massive, athletic offensive line that creates big plays.
Jalen Hurts, who torched the Chiefs for 304 passing yards and 3 rushing TDs in their last Super Bowl matchup, remains a problem for defenses. And let’s not forget, Philly already took down KC earlier this season in a 21-17 road win, despite Hurts being sacked five times.
On defense, the Eagles bring in Vic Fangio—who hasn’t beaten Mahomes in eight tries but has designed some of the toughest defenses in the league. His unit led the NFL in passing defense, allowing just 174.2 yards per game. If he can force Mahomes into a mistake or two, Philly has a real shot.
The Case for the Chiefs
Mahomes. Reid. The most consistent playoff duo in the league. Three Super Bowl rings. A 7-1 postseason record at neutral sites. If you’re backing the Chiefs, history is on your side.
Mahomes, 3-1 in Super Bowls and already a three-time MVP in the big game, has a chance to join legends like Joe Montana and Terry Bradshaw with four rings. With 43 career postseason TDs, he’s closing in on Aaron Rodgers (45) and Montana (45) for second all-time—though he’s still chasing Tom Brady’s ridiculous 88.
Chris Jones summed up the public sentiment best: “I get it. If I was on the outside looking in, I’d be sick of the Chiefs too.”
But tired or not, Kansas City is fully healthy and locked in. Mahomes’ sharp passing in practice this week is a positive sign, and all active players were full participants. On the other side, the Eagles have some injury concerns, with Brandon Graham (elbow), Jalen Carter (illness), and DeVonta Smith (hamstring) all limited in practice.
