No. 5 Texas vs. No. 12 Clemson: First-Round CFP Showdown
The stage is set for a compelling College Football Playoff first-round matchup as No. 5 Texas hosts No. 12 Clemson on Saturday afternoon in Austin, Texas. The winner will advance to face No. 4 Arizona State in the Peach Bowl on Jan. 1.
Betting Line and Context:
Texas opened as a 10.5-point favorite, the largest spread of any first-round CFP game, reflecting the oddsmakers’ confidence in the Longhorns. This will mark the first-ever meeting between these two storied programs.
The Longhorns (11-2) are coming off a gut-wrenching 22-19 overtime loss to Georgia in the SEC Championship, while the Tigers (10-3) secured their CFP spot with a dramatic 34-31 victory over SMU in the ACC Championship.
Key Storylines:
Texas:
Despite injuries in the SEC title game, Texas dominated early against Georgia, with quarterback Quinn Ewers battling through a sprained ankle and left tackle Kelvin Banks (Outland Trophy winner) sidelined. Both are expected to return fully healthy for this matchup, a significant boost to an offense averaging 36.8 points per game.
Ewers, who has passed for 2,665 yards and 25 TDs this season, emphasized the simplicity of his approach: “Get the ball to the playmakers and let them work.” That formula will be crucial against a Clemson defense allowing just 21.2 points per game.
The Longhorns’ only losses this season were to Georgia, making this game a critical bounce-back opportunity to validate their CFP aspirations.
Clemson:
The Tigers leaned on quarterback Cade Klubnik and freshman kicker Nolan Hauser’s clutch 56-yard game-winning field goal to punch their playoff ticket. Klubnik, an Austin native and former Westlake star, has been electric, throwing for 3,303 yards, 33 TDs, and just 5 interceptions while adding 458 rushing yards and 7 TDs.
Clemson’s season has been a rollercoaster, with notable losses to Georgia, Louisville, and South Carolina. However, their resilience under head coach Dabo Swinney—a two-time national champion—makes them a dangerous underdog.
Running back Phil Mafah, who has rushed for 1,106 yards and 8 TDs, will play through a shoulder injury that requires surgery after the season. Swinney knows Mafah’s performance will be pivotal: “He’s going to give us everything he’s got.”
Key Matchup:
Ewers vs. Klubnik isn’t just a battle of quarterbacks—it’s a reunion of Texas high school legends. Klubnik got the better of Ewers in their high school state championship meeting, but Ewers will aim to reverse the narrative on the national stage.
Final Thoughts:
With Texas getting key players like Quinn Ewers and Kelvin Banks back at full health, expect the Longhorns to come out firing in front of a raucous home crowd. Texas has consistently started fast this season, averaging 19.2 points per first half, and their ability to impose their will early has been a hallmark of their success.
Meanwhile, Clemson has struggled in the opening halves of games against quality opponents, particularly on the road, where they’ve been outscored by an average of 7.8 points in first-half play during their losses. With Ewers leading an explosive offense and a motivated defense seeking redemption after the SEC Championship, Texas is well-positioned to cover the -6.5 first-half spread.
Expect the Longhorns to establish the tempo early, leveraging their home-field advantage and superior depth to build a comfortable lead before halftime. If you’re looking for a sharp angle, Texas First Half -6.5 offers a strong play.
